Summary: Since 2012 the idea of a "stall speed" to the economy played a prominent role the almost incessant predictions of an imminent recession. Since then the US has cruised at or below stall speed without a downturn. This is rich with lessons for us -- about the danger of believing untested theories, about overconfident … Continue reading The mystery of the US economy at stall speed
Summary: Time for a status report on the US economy, reviewing the economic data. Since the crash we've been playing out The Perils of Pauline, with repeated rescues from a recession that we're in poor shape to experience. As usual, the picture is cloudy -- despite the steady drone from the stuck clocks of the … Continue reading Status report on the US economy: darkening sky, rough waves ahead.
Summary: Let's again look at the data about the US economy (we cannot directly see it, of course), both the recent past (dimly seen) and the immediate future (looming ahead in the darkness). Slower growth than usual since WWII, with higher risks and more unknowns. Just as I've reported for the past four years. (2nd … Continue reading What does the data tell us about the US economy in 2015?
Summary: Growth slows in the developed nations due to several factors, as debt levels rise. Have we entered the "coffin corner" where we cannot growth sufficiently fast to service our debt? This is the follow-up to The dilemma of the US economy: can’t take off & too close to the brink. . In the absence … Continue reading Has America’s economy entered the “coffin corner”?
The US economy has repeatedly failed to resume normal growth after the crash. But potentially worse is the decline in long-term growth estimates. This is part one of two posts describing the dilemma. <a href=""> Read More...