Summary: Prosperity, perhaps even survival, in the 21st century might require learning which experts we should listen to. In economics its a short list, if we limit it to people who have understood large aspects of the great recession and the aftermath. Richard Koo certainly deserves to make that short list. Here he tells us … Continue reading Richard Koo gives a “Post-QE forecast: sunny, cloudy, or stormy?”
Summary: The first phase of the great monetary experiment was guaranteed pleasure. Whatever the results, monetary stimulus feels great. Then comes the difficult process of withdrawing the stimulus. "Tapering", as its called by economists (and, coincidentally, by heroin addicts). How much damage will be cause? How much pain? Today we have advice about what to … Continue reading What happens if the economy hits some rocks? Will the Fed stop the taper?
Summary: Fed officials see as tools their ability to manage our confidence and expectations. This means a constant policy of exaggeration and distortion in their speeches, as truth and plain-speaking are secondary considerations. But there are exceptions. Perhaps the most famous is Bernanke's 2002 "the U.S. government has a technology called a printing press" speech. … Continue reading A Fed Governor speaks honestly to us about the costs and risks of our monetary policy
Summary: Today we discuss the nature of the great monetary experiment now under weigh, with five years of zero interest rates and repeated doses of quantitative easing. What does it mean to say this is an "experiment"? If we cannot reliably predict the outcome, at least let's understand how we got into this predicament. . … Continue reading How to predict the outcome of this great monetary experiment, and how we got into this box
Summary: On the FM website we have followed the evolution of the great monetary experiment. After four years we have mostly questions. What have been the beneficial effects, and how large? What have been the ill effects today and in the future? Does quantitative easing act like an addictive drug? Today's post by Lacy Hunt … Continue reading Dr Hunt explains the great monetary experiment. It will be historic, no matter what the result.