uncertainty

Uncertainty becomes certainty - dreamstime_41948707

A crisis of overconfidence in climate science

Dr. Curry finds low professional standards in climate science. Remarkable in a purely academic science, in climate science it might have disastrous effects.

Advertisements

How accurate are climate scientists’ findings? Look at ocean warming.

Summary:  This might be one of the more important of our 3500 posts. It looks at an often asked question about climate science — how accurate are its findings, a key factor when we make decisions about trillions of dollars (and affecting billions of people). The example examined is ocean heat content, a vital metric …

How accurate are climate scientists’ findings? Look at ocean warming. Read More »

The core of the climate debate: how much of the past warming did we cause?

Summary:  Today we have a post by Judith Curry, a leading climate scientist, going to the very heart of the debate: how much of the warming since 1950 results from us? Before making predictions, how confidently can we see our past? Climate change presents one of the greatest challenges in humanity’s history. To accurately assess …

The core of the climate debate: how much of the past warming did we cause? Read More »

Worst case scenarios versus fat tails: a discussion about climate change

Summary: Threat assessment requires understanding not just of worst case scenarios, but their odds of occurrence. Yesterday’s post looked at the math: A guide into the weird numbers that run our world, describing both financial bubbles & climate change — power laws, Black Swans, and Dragon Kings. If the worst case scenarios come true, we’ll …

Worst case scenarios versus fat tails: a discussion about climate change Read More »