unemployment

How strong is the US economy? Let’s look at drivers of growth!

Summary: The previous post about the economy examined the odds of recession. Today’s let’s take a more granular look at the economy. In the first half of the year the US economy expanded (GDP) at 1.4% (SAAR). Faster than Q4 (near-zero), but well below the 2% stall speed. Yet most economists expect acceleration in the …

How strong is the US economy? Let’s look at drivers of growth! Read More »

A look at the state of the US economy. Join me in confusion!

Summary: The current economic situation of the US is fascinating. Repeated disappointments in the past, great optimism about the future, confusion about today, all occurring amidst one of the greatest monetary experiments in history. The stakes are high. Growth will force perilous withdrawal of the current massive monetary stimulus; a slowdown will force more stimulus …

A look at the state of the US economy. Join me in confusion! Read More »

One graph that says much about America, and our future: the growth in jobs vs. food stamp use

Summary:  Today we have a graphic that tells us much about both the recovery and the trends shaping the New America — growth in food stamps vs. jobs.  What forces drive these contrasting trends, and how will they help reshape America? . Below we see the US recovery in one graphic, from the February 4 …

One graph that says much about America, and our future: the growth in jobs vs. food stamp use Read More »

In Friday’s job report you’ll see early signs of the robot revolution!

Summary:  Employment growth has been the slowest of any post-WW2 recovery. But a greater problem lies ahead — the robot revolution. The next wave of automation, affecting both manufacturing and the far larger population of service workers.  Here’s a status report on its early phase, already in motion.  At the end are links to other …

In Friday’s job report you’ll see early signs of the robot revolution! Read More »

What you’re not being told about the world economy, but should know!

Summary: The secret key to the FM website’s great forecasting record is that we do only the blindingly obvious, and give no dates. Such as the long forecast of stability for the world economy, to be followed by ugliness. We revisit this again, showing that almost nothing is happening yet in the global economy. All …

What you’re not being told about the world economy, but should know! Read More »

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