Update on El Niño: will Gaia disappoint the climate activists?

Summary: Climate alarmists have run wild with predictions about the "monster" "Godzilla" El Niño, their last throw of the dice before the COP-21 climate conference in Paris. Here is an example by Brad Plummer, with some debunking. The latest forecasts of the major climate models suggest that it will disappoint activists (but match NOAA's more … Continue reading Update on El Niño: will Gaia disappoint the climate activists?

Manufacturing climate nightmares: misusing science to create horrific predictions

Climate nightmares

Summary: Scientists and journalists bombard us with news about the coming climate catastrophe, described as certain unless we drastically change our economy. This has plunged many into despair. The hidden key to these forecasts is RCP8.5, the worst case scenario of the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report -- often erroneously described as the "business as usual" … Continue reading Manufacturing climate nightmares: misusing science to create horrific predictions

What if the “Godzilla” El Niño is a dud?

Summary:  After months of hype about this "Godzilla" El Niño, the peak approaches. The major climate models warn that it might be just another strong cycle (like 1997-98), as NOAA & the WMO have predicted -- not the precedent-breaking monstrous event predicted in the news headlines. As a thought experiment, consider how might this -- … Continue reading What if the “Godzilla” El Niño is a dud?

Climate scientists can restart the climate policy debate & win: test the models!

World Models

Summary; Public policy about climate change has become politicized and gridlocked after 26 years of large-scale advocacy. We cannot even prepare for a repeat of past extreme weather. We can whine and bicker about who to blame. Or we can find ways to restart the debate. Here is the next of a series about the … Continue reading Climate scientists can restart the climate policy debate & win: test the models!

Ten years after Katrina: let’s learn from those predictions of more & bigger hurricanes

Summary -- Most 10-year anniversary articles about Katrina omit one chapter of that sad story: its exploitation by climate activists. They predicted more and stronger hurricanes. Let's grade them. Every time activists falsely cry "wolf" we become weaker, less able to prepare for real threats. Remembering is the first step to learning. “Sooner or later, … Continue reading Ten years after Katrina: let’s learn from those predictions of more & bigger hurricanes