WWI

For Honor

Lessons from WWI that can help us end our Long War

Bowman shatters the usual trite ideas about the start of WWI. Change the the names and details, much of it applies to the War on Terror.

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Forecasting with models

WWI warns us about markets’ ability to see the future

Summary: Confidence rules America, with US markets at or near record high valuations and Team Trump expanding our wars. Time for a reminder that our ability to predict events is small, which means these moments of great confidence are periods of high risk. This is a revised post from 2014. “We seem to be living …

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