Tag Archives: mexico

STRATFOR gives A New Way to Think About Mexican Organized Crime

Summary: Stratfor looks at events in our southern partner, whose dynamics we ignore but might have a decisive effect on 21st century America. Trade, crime, immigration — Mexico is a central player in all of these, yet we pay more attention to events in Yemen. It’s another example of our cloudy vision, a weakness that can negate even the greatest power.   {2nd of 2 posts today.}

“What nation poses the greatest threat to the sovereignty of the US?”
“Mexico.”
— Q&A following briefing by Martin van Creveld to a US intelligence agency. Twenty years ago they were incredulous. Now it seems more realistic.

Stratfor

A New Way to Think About Mexican Organized Crime

By Tristan Reed at Stratfor, 15 January 2015

Decentralized but more powerful

Since the emergence of the Guadalajara cartel in the 1980s as one of the country’s largest drug trafficking organizations, Mexican organized crime has continued to expand its reach up and down the global supply chains of illicit drugs.

Under the Guadalajara cartel and its contemporaries, such as the Gulf cartel, led by Juan Garcia Abrego, a relatively small number of crime bosses controlled Mexico’s terrestrial illicit supply chains. Crime bosses such as Miguel Angel “El Padrino” Felix Gallardo, the leader of the Guadalajara cartel, oversaw the bulk of the trafficking operations necessary to push drugs into the United States and received large portions of the revenue generated. By the same token, this facilitated law enforcement’s ability to disrupt entire supply chains with a single arrest. Such highly centralized structures ultimately proved unsustainable under consistent and aggressive law enforcement pressure. Thus, as Mexican organized crime has expanded its control over greater shares of the global drug trade, it has simultaneously become more decentralized, as exemplified by an increasing number of organizational splits.

Indeed, the arrest of Felix Gallardo in 1989 and of colleagues such as Rafael Caro Quintero and Ernesto Fonseca Carrillo a few years prior led to the breakdown of the Guadalajara cartel by 1990. Thanks to geographic factors, however, Mexican organized crime was destined to increasingly dominate the global illicit drug trade, soon even eclipsing the role Colombian drug traffickers played in supplying cocaine to the huge and highly lucrative retail markets in the United States.

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Are ISIS terrorists coming to America from a base in Mexico?

Summary: Arousing fear has become not just an effective political tool but a good business in our increasingly gullible America. This post looks at one example from the many in today’s news. An industry has grown to disseminate activists’ scary stories. Like the candy industry it’s big because we love their products although we know they’re bad for us. We’ll need sterner standards if we hope to again govern ourselves. {2nd of 2 posts today.}

Contents

  1. Weaponized urban legends.
  2. Today’s fear attack on America.
  3. Journalists defending us.
  4. Conclusions.
  5. For More Information.

 

(1)  Weaponized urban legends

For years I wondered what happened to the scary but fun urban legends that so often swept across America, as new ones became rare after the bogus Y2K panic attack. Had we learned? Only slowly did it become apparent that this powerful tool has been professionalized by activists and deployed against us for political effect. Amateurs’ creations can’t compete against the product of pros.

Previous posts have debunked the increasingly delusional claims by the Left’s activists about imminent climate catastrophes (either unsupported or contradicted by the work of the IPCC). Here we look at similar activities of the Right. A thousand and one posts could be written and not list a year’s fear barrages dropped on America, and their growing role shaping our view of the world.

(2)  Today’s fear attack on America

A hot meme on the Right concerns the danger from the others to the south. Hordes of young men taking our jobs. Criminals taking our goods and attacking our women. Lazy people exploiting our charity. Sick people bringing diseases. The latest concerns those others working with our foes.

Judicial Watch originates many of these stories (165 thousand followers on Twitter), aptly described by the invaluable myth-busters at Snopes in an article debunking the jihadists coming from Mexico stories:

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Strafor looks at Mexico: “The Struggle for Balance”

More about what might be the greatest threat to American sovereignty.  At the end are links to other articles about our crisis to the south.

Mexico: The Struggle for Balance

By Scott Stewart, Stratfor, 6 April 2010 — This report is republished with permission of STRATFOR.

This week’s Geopolitical Intelligence Report provided a high-level assessment of the economic forces that affect how the Mexican people and the Mexican government view the flow of narcotics through that country. Certainly at that macro level, there is a lot of money flowing into Mexico and a lot of people, from bankers and businessmen to political parties and politicians, are benefiting from the massive influx of cash. The lure of this lucre shapes how many Mexicans (particularly many of the Mexican elite) view narcotics trafficking. It is, frankly, a good time to be a banker, a real estate developer or a Rolex dealer in Mexico.

However, at the tactical level, there are a number of issues also shaping the opinions of many Mexicans regarding narcotics trafficking, including violence, corruption and rapidly rising domestic narcotics consumption. At this level, people are being terrorized by running gunbattles, mass beheadings and rampant kidnappings — the types of events that STRATFOR covers in our Mexico Security Memos.

Mexican elites have the money to buy armored cars and hire private security guards. But rampant corruption in the security forces means the common people seemingly have nowhere to turn for help at the local level (not an uncommon occurrence in the developing world). The violence is also having a heavy impact on Mexico’s tourist sector and on the willingness of foreign companies to invest in Mexico’s manufacturing sector. Many smaller business owners are being hit from two sides — they receive extortion demands from criminals while facing a decrease in revenue due to a drop in tourism because of the crime and violence. These citizens and businessmen are demanding help from Mexico City.

These two opposing forces — the inexorable flow of huge quantities of cash and the pervasive violence, corruption and fear — are placing a tremendous amount of pressure on the Calderon administration. And this pressure will only increase as Mexico moves closer to the 2012 presidential elections (President Felipe Calderon was the law-and-order candidate and was elected in 2006 in large part due to his pledge to end cartel violence). Faced by these forces, Calderon needs to find a way to strike a delicate balance, one that will reassert Mexican government authority, quell the violence and mollify the public while also allowing the river of illicit cash to continue flowing into Mexico.

An examination of the historical dynamics of the narcotics trade in Mexico reveals that in order for the violence to stop, there needs to be a balance among the various drug-trafficking organizations involved in the trade. New dynamics have begun to shape the narcotics business in Mexico, and they are causing that balance to be very elusive. For the Calderon administration, desperate times may have called for desperate measures.

The Balance

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Freidman of Stratfor writes about “Mexico and the Failed State Revisited”

Another brilliant analysis from Stratfor, about (as Martin van Creveld foresaw two decades ago) one of the major threats to America.  This is a another perspective to the recent articles about the “end of Mexico.”  At the end are links to other articles about Mexico. 

Mexico and the Failed State Revisited

George Friedman, Stratfor, 6 April 2010 — This report is republished with permission of STRATFOR.

STRATFOR argued March 13, 2008, that Mexico was nearing the status of a failed state. A failed state is one in which the central government has lost control over significant areas of the country and the state is unable to function. In revisiting this issue, it seems to us that the Mexican government has lost control of the northern tier of Mexico to drug-smuggling organizations, which have significantly greater power in that region than government forces. Moreover, the ability of the central government to assert its will against these organizations has weakened to the point that decisions made by the state against the cartels are not being implemented or are being implemented in a way that would guarantee failure.

Despite these facts, it is not clear to STRATFOR that Mexico is becoming a failed state. Instead, it appears the Mexican state has accommodated itself to the situation. Rather than failing, it has developed strategies designed both to ride out the storm and to maximize the benefits of that storm for Mexico.

First, while the Mexican government has lost control over matters having to do with drugs and with the borderlands of the United States, Mexico City’s control over other regions — and over areas other than drug enforcement — has not collapsed (though its lack of control over drugs could well extend to other areas eventually). Second, while drugs reshape Mexican institutions dramatically, they also, paradoxically, stabilize Mexico. We need to examine these crosscurrents to understand the status of Mexico.

Mexico’s Core Problem

Let’s begin by understanding the core problem. The United States consumes vast amounts of narcotics, which, while illegal there, make their way in abundance. Narcotics derive from low-cost agricultural products that become consumable with minimal processing. With its long, shared border with the United States, Mexico has become a major grower, processor and exporter of narcotics. Because the drugs are illegal and thus outside normal market processes, their price is determined by their illegality rather than by the cost of production. This means extraordinary profits can be made by moving narcotics from the Mexican side of the border to markets on the other side.

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National Drug Threat Assessment 2010

The Dept of Justice has published an update on one of our longest wars, declared by President Nixon at a press conference on 17 June 1971 (more explicitly to Congress here).  Only the War on Poverty (declared by LBJ on 8 January 1964) has run longer.  (I have not found a date for first use of  “War on Cancer”; it was not used by Nixon in 1971).

Excerpt from the Executive Summary of the National Drug Threat Assessment 2010 (red emphasis added):

Overall, the availability of illicit drugs in the United States is increasing.1 In fact, in 2009 the prevalence of four of the five major drugs–heroin, methamphetamine, marijuana, and MDMA (3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine)–was widespread and increasing in some areas. Conversely, cocaine shortages first identified in 2007 persisted in many markets.

… Although drug use remained relatively stable from 2007 through 2008, more than 25 million individuals 12 years of age and older reported using an illicit drug or using a controlled prescription drug (CPD) nonmedically in 2008. Each year, drug-related deaths number in the thousands, and treatment admissions and emergency department (ED) visits both exceed a million. These and other consequences of drug abuse, including lost productivity associated with abuse, the impact on the criminal justice system, and the environmental impact that results from the production of illicit drugs, are estimated at nearly $215 billion  annually.

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Stratfor looks at Mexico: The War with the Cartels in 2009

There are few if any foreign policy issues more serious for America than our relations to Mexico, and few foreign threats over which we have so little influence.

Mexico:  The War with the Cartels in 2009“, Scott Stewart and Alex Posey, Stratfor, 9 December 2009 — Reposted with permission.  Links to additional information appear at the end.

Introduction

There are 2 cartel wars currently raging in Mexico that have combined to produce record levels of violence in 2009.

  • The first war is the struggle between the government of Mexico and the drug cartels.
  • The second, a parallel war, is the fight among the various cartels as they compete for control of lucrative supply routes.

Shortly after his inauguration in December 2006, President Felipe Calderon launched an all-out effort to target the cartels, which he viewed as a major threat to Mexico’s security and stability. Over the past three years, the government’s effort has weakened and fragmented some of the major cartels (namely the Gulf and Sinaloa cartels), but this government progress has upset the balance of power among the cartels, which has resulted in increased violence. Former cartel allies have been pitted against each other in bloody battles of attrition as rival cartels have tried to take advantage of their weakened competitors and seize control of smuggling routes.

In this year’s report on Mexico’s drug cartels, we assess the most significant developments of the past year and provide an updated description of the country’s powerful drug-trafficking organizations as well as a forecast for 2010. This annual report is a product of the coverage we maintain on a weekly basis through our Mexico Security Memo as well as other analyses we produce throughout the year.

Mexico’s Drug Trafficking Organizations

(1)  La Familia

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Update about Mexico, the failing state on our border

Mexico continues to fall apart in slow-mo.  There seems to be little we can do to help, so our government pretends all is fine — rather than take defensive measures.

Contents

  1. Mexico Security Memo, Stratfor, 9 November 2009 — A typical week in Mexico, reported by one of the few agencies covering this important story.
  2. The Fall of Mexcio“, Philip Caputo, The Atlantic, December 2009
  3. FM recommendations about Mexico
  4. Other articles about Mexico
  5. For more information and an Afterword

Excerpts

(1)  Mexico Security Memo, Stratfor, 9 November 2009 — A typical week in Mexico.  Excerpt:

Gunmen posing as police officers entered the Amadeus strip club in Juarez, Chihuahua state and methodically executed six people in the early morning hours of Nov. 4, including U.S. Air Force Staff Sgt. David Booher Montanez.

The Secretary of Public Security for the city of Garcia, Nuevo Leon state, retired Brig. Gen. Juan Arturo Esparza, was killed along with four of his bodyguards in a firefight that took place outside of the Garcia mayor’s home in the afternoon of Nov. 4. The mayor of Garcia, Jaime Rodriguez, exited his home to find a group of eight trucks with armed men outside. Rodriguez then issued a call for help; Esparza and his four bodyguards were the only ones to respond. The governor of the state of Nuevo Leon, Rodrigo Medina de la Cruz, promptly relieved the remaining 70 officers of their duties and ordered the Nuevo Leon state Investigative Agency to investigate their inaction. … The inaction by the rest of the Garcia police department underscores the remaining corruption issues that continue to plague the Mexican security apparatus.

(2)  The Fall of Mexcio“, Philip Caputo, The Atlantic, December 2009 — This is very much worth reading in full.  Excerpt:

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