WWI warns us about markets’ ability to see the future

Forecasting with models

Summary: Confidence rules America, with US markets at or near record high valuations and Team Trump expanding our wars. Time for a reminder that our ability to predict events is small, which means these moments of great confidence are periods of high risk. This is a revised post from 2014. “We seem to be living … Continue reading WWI warns us about markets’ ability to see the future

Watch the economy, the decisive factor in the 2018 election

Stand by for a boom!

Summary: While the Democrats party over their victories on Tuesday, let's examine one of the great forces deciding elections. What is the trend of the US economy, and how might it influence the major elections in 2018? The Republican's incompetence gave the Democrat's some rare victories on Tuesday. Today Democrats rejoice, relieved that they need … Continue reading Watch the economy, the decisive factor in the 2018 election

Wonder Woman tells us about slavery in 1918 England

Summary: Here is a wonderfully revealing clip from Wonder Woman about the oppression of woman. Audiences laughed! It is, however, quite mad. Let's turn the clock back to 1918. We'll know more about 2017 when we are done, and we will have a key to the political reform of America. Hollywood provides a mirror in … Continue reading Wonder Woman tells us about slavery in 1918 England

More proof of rising inequality, perhaps our greatest threat

Inequality

Summary: The rise of inequality is one of the greatest challenges of our time. A new report provides even more documentation about the gravity of the threat. Will this spark action by America's people? Or are the 1% right -- that they are best fit to rule and that we are sheep? It all starts … Continue reading More proof of rising inequality, perhaps our greatest threat

Today’s Jobs Report Is Important, But Not For The Reasons You’re Given

TV noise

Summary: It's time for the monthly festival of misinformation about the jobs report! It shows two key trends giving bad news for investors, the Fed's governors, Team Trump, and America.  They shatter the dreams of growth that flowered in 2015 (for the third time in this expansion). This is the second of today's two posts. May's … Continue reading Today’s Jobs Report Is Important, But Not For The Reasons You’re Given