See the trends of the US economy, looking towards 2020

A glowing crystal ball held in two hands

Summary: The course of US politics might depend on what happens to the US economy during the past three years. Predictions are difficult, but the trend is clear: the economy is slowing -- and has been since early 2015. Too bad journalists prefer to focus on the exciting noise, not the trend. By most metrics, … Continue reading See the trends of the US economy, looking towards 2020

Trump’s Tax Cuts Won’t Offset the Impending Slowdown

Forecasting

Summary: American elections often turn on recent economic growth. So Trump's future, the GOP's future, and perhaps the course of US politics might depend on the what the economy does during the next three years. Here one of the world's top forecasting firms looks at our future. They see slowing growth, which Trump's fiscal stimulus … Continue reading Trump’s Tax Cuts Won’t Offset the Impending Slowdown

See the mystery of US GDP, and understand ourselves better

Evolution of estimates of US GDP for Q1 2015

Summary: It's the simple things that provide a mirror in which we can see ourselves, and the roots of America's problems. Such as this graph showing estimates of US GDP for Q1 2015 -- getting more accurate with each revision. This graph shows estimates of GDP for Q1 2015 made by the Bureau of Economic … Continue reading See the mystery of US GDP, and understand ourselves better