See the mystery of US GDP, and understand ourselves better

Evolution of estimates of US GDP for Q1 2015

Summary: It's the simple things that provide a mirror in which we can see ourselves, and the roots of America's problems. Such as this graph showing estimates of US GDP for Q1 2015 -- getting more accurate with each revision. This graph shows estimates of GDP for Q1 2015 made by the Bureau of Economic … Continue reading See the mystery of US GDP, and understand ourselves better

Japan refuses to die, soon to become a 21st century star

Japan: setting sun

Summary: Japan continues to prosper, defying the doomsters' forecasts. Is this a delay of their end times, or the taxing down the runway before lift-off? Japan is in some ways further into the future than the rest of the world. We should watch and learn from them.   Since Japan's long crash began in 1989, … Continue reading Japan refuses to die, soon to become a 21st century star

Update about immigration: a hot issue in 2016, forgotten in 2017

Immigration

Summary: Immigration was a major issue of the 2016 election, to the discomfort of America's ruling elites. Afterwards it was displaced by issues more important to them, such as stripping healthcare from millions and cutting taxes for the rich. It exists today in the media mostly in emotional "human interest" stories about "dreamers" (such labels … Continue reading Update about immigration: a hot issue in 2016, forgotten in 2017

WWI warns us about markets’ ability to see the future

Forecasting with models

Summary: Confidence rules America, with US markets at or near record high valuations and Team Trump expanding our wars. Time for a reminder that our ability to predict events is small, which means these moments of great confidence are periods of high risk. This is a revised post from 2014. “We seem to be living … Continue reading WWI warns us about markets’ ability to see the future

Watch the economy, the decisive factor in the 2018 election

Stand by for a boom!

Summary: While the Democrats party over their victories on Tuesday, let's examine one of the great forces deciding elections. What is the trend of the US economy, and how might it influence the major elections in 2018? The Republican's incompetence gave the Democrat's some rare victories on Tuesday. Today Democrats rejoice, relieved that they need … Continue reading Watch the economy, the decisive factor in the 2018 election