Summary: One theory of the bulls is that the slow recovery since 2008 means that there are few imbalances in the US economy, the strong sectors whose busts cause recessions. That is not correct. Here we look at one strong sector: automobile sales. As usual in America, we start by looking at the lending that … Continue reading What Happens When the Auto-Loan Boom Blows Up?
The stories about Goldman Sachs seem to be arousing outrage, as deeper but more abstract analysis has not. As the saying goes, "It's Goldman's world; we just live in it". While Goldman is just one firm, it is first among equals in the financial sector and among the most successful of exploiting the current US … Continue reading About Goldman Sachs, the exemplar of our financial system
We now enter the third phase of the crisis. Past events along the way, milestones on the road, each generated headlines and thousands of articles -- are forgotten as we move to the next phase. And rightly so. The overall process is the important thing to see, so large that it is visible only in our mind's eye. This … Continue reading High priority report: a geopolitical sitrep on the financial crisis
The daily newspapers display events as string of beads. Discrete, unrelated. That masks the key to understanding what is happening: the systemic drivers at work. This is in my opinion not a series of isolated events or even a cyclical downturn. We are experiencing a change in the fundamental structure of the global economic regime. You … Continue reading Framing current events about the global economic and geopolitical system