Banks Are The Key To This Stock Market Decline, & The Recession That Might Follow

Summary: After years of slow economic growth and rising asset prices in America, with investment gurus and economists predicting booms & crashes, events have again taken center stage. It's time to again pay attention to the data.  {2nd of 2 posts today} Risk markets are rolling over, high-grade bonds rise on a flight to safety. … Continue reading Banks Are The Key To This Stock Market Decline, & The Recession That Might Follow

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Did anyone predict the 2008 crash? Will anyone predict the next crash?

Summary: There are many who claim to have predicted the 2008 crash. Most (or all) in fact did not foresee the banking collapse that was at its center, that expanded a commonplace downturn into the worst global downturn since the 1930s. That tells us something important about our times, and what we an expect in … Continue reading Did anyone predict the 2008 crash? Will anyone predict the next crash?

Government economic stimulus is powerful medicine. Just as heroin was once used as a powerful medicine.

Summary: Today America passed an important fork in the road, an easy exit from the massive monetary stimulus running since the crash. If the economy continues its slow growth (well below the 2% stall speed) today might have been the last opportunity for an easy exit. Today also demonstrated the madness that infects us, as … Continue reading Government economic stimulus is powerful medicine. Just as heroin was once used as a powerful medicine.

This might be the turning point in the global financial crisis, when bold action puts us on the road to recovery

This could be the turning point in the global financial crisis (GFC) that began in Fall 2008.  Much like the August, when Mexico's financial crisis (the climax of the long Latin American debt crisis) forced the Federal Reserve to loosen monetary policy, igniting the long disinflationary growth period that ran (with two light interruptions) until … Continue reading This might be the turning point in the global financial crisis, when bold action puts us on the road to recovery

Never waste a crisis. That just makes the next one inevitable and probably worse.

In America today the truth is often easily seen:  statements of the obvious or about the inevitable attract the loudest criticism.  So it was at the start of the financial crisis, when  Rahm Emanuel, Obama's chief of staff, told a  conference of top corporate chief executives in November 2008. "You never want a serious crisis to go … Continue reading Never waste a crisis. That just makes the next one inevitable and probably worse.

American States on the brink of financial catastrophe

In the third year of the worst recession since the 1930's many States totter on the brink of catastrophe, after generations of imprudent management.  Ahead lie even greater challenges, as employees cash in on their insanely generous pensions.  A few charts tell the tale -- showing America's most profligate states -- from "The State of California … Continue reading American States on the brink of financial catastrophe

A great speech by the PM of Greece. How soon until an American President says similar words?

A great speech, more powerful and truthful by far than anything said so far by President Obama.  Truly the sight of the gallows focuses the mind.  How soon until an American President says such things?  Not long (and only if we're lucky), unless we get smart and work together.  Note this was a speech not … Continue reading A great speech by the PM of Greece. How soon until an American President says similar words?