A recession is certain. Unless the epidemic breaks soon, a depression seems likely. Lessons from history tell us how to fight it. But much of our experience is inappropriate and we will have to improvise. Here is the brief.
Summary: The media overflow with hysterical predictions about the next four years, but few well-grounded visions. Here is a brief look at some of what we can expect, and why, and what these events reveal about ourselves. What makes America great? Great for whom? Investors have pushed US stock to near-record valuations (record valuations on …
Summary: It’s time to prepare for a possible recession in 2016. The manufacturing slump continues to deepen. A toxic combo: high inventories in November and weak retail sales in December. In February this expansion will tie for the 3rd longest expansion. {2nd of 2 posts today.} The Atlanta Fed’s GDPnow model just lowered its est …
The Government Has A Clip Full Of Ammo To Fight The Next Recession Read More »
Summary: In a previous article I listed the powerful tools the US government would deploy during the next recession. Today we discuss something more important: will they work? We can look to Japan for an answer. Their great stagnation began with the 1989 crash, 11 years before the tech bubble burst and began America’s new …
What Will the US Do in a Recession? Look to Japan for Answers… Read More »
Summary: Six years after the recession ended, we are due for another recession. Many experts say that the government is “out of bullets” to fight the next severe downturn. That’s quite false because 2008 marked the start of a new era in which our leaders manage the business cycles using strange and awesome tools. We’ll …
The Fed will use these power tools during the next big recession Read More »
