Summary: A weakness of my posts is that they don't adequately convey the wonders of our time, the extraordinary events, the uncertainty of future outcomes. Today I attempt to show the amazing nature of our new economy, as highlighted in last weeks' speech by Larry Summers. We have entered a new world, for ill or … Continue reading Understanding the new world shown us by Larry Summers
Summary: We mock China for their over investment in infrastructure. Gleaming new factories, high-speed trains, subways. Foolish ants. Exceptional America does it better. As a third in this series, we look at some pictures of how much America invests in itself. These are snapshots, not a comprehensive assessment. Still, they tell a chilling story. We … Continue reading Four graphs showing a nation in decline. An unnecessary and easily fixed decline.
Summary: We have now had a 24 hour avalanche of analysis about the Fed's decision not to taper. Most technically accurate, as economic news often is. But myopic, as news coverage usually is. Today's post gives a wider perspective on this decision, putting it in the content of the Great Recession and the following slow … Continue reading Different answers to your questions about the momentous Fed decision to delay tapering
Summary: Today America passed an important fork in the road, an easy exit from the massive monetary stimulus running since the crash. If the economy continues its slow growth (well below the 2% stall speed) today might have been the last opportunity for an easy exit. Today also demonstrated the madness that infects us, as … Continue reading Government economic stimulus is powerful medicine. Just as heroin was once used as a powerful medicine.
Summary: In an this time of almost unprecedented economic intervention by governments -- experiments on a scale never before attempted during peacetime -- determining the state of the economy is difficult. Determining the near future of the economic is almost impossible. Determining the distant future requires psychic powers. Today we continue our series of looking … Continue reading The US economy is slowing. Things might get exciting if this continues.
Summary: The news media focuses on the month-to-month changes in the jobs report, which consist mostly of noise. Strong months confirm the optimists; weak months confirm the pessimists. In fact the trend of growth remains the real story, with the US economy near stall speed -- supported only (like the other developed nations) by massive … Continue reading The June jobs report: continued slow growth, bought at a high cost
Summary: The news media focuses on the month-to-month changes in the jobs report, which consist mostly of noise. Strong months confirm the optimists; weak months confirm the pessimists. In fact the trend of growth remains the real story, with the US economy near stall speed -- supported only (like the other developed nations) by massive multi-year fiscal and … Continue reading The April jobs report shows continued slow growth, bought at great cost