Summary: To understand this election we must see the accumulated stresses which produced the insurgencies in both parties. Rising income inequality -- "the hollowing out" of the middle class and rise of the 1% -- is probably the biggest, yet still poorly understood (until recently conservatives denied it). This great study by one of our … Continue reading See America’s income inequality grow during 1979-2011, a driver of Campaign 2016
Summary: Every year Wall Street economists see a spike in a few indicators and announce an imminent boom. This slowly fades away, leaving another year of slow growth -- preventing full recovery from the crash. Readers of the FM website have seen this accurately reported since the crash, avoiding the boom-bust cycle of of crushed … Continue reading The US economy flies into the “coffin corner”, but we don’t mind!
Summary: We've reached a critical point in this business cycle. We enjoyed the years of fiscal and monetary stimulus; now comes the dismount. Only after the stimulus ends will we learn the true strength of our economy. Today we look at the monthly jobs report, perhaps the single most important indicator. Three graphs tell the story, … Continue reading 3 graphs tell the story about the US economy, hidden amidst the noise of the jobs report
Summary: If the great monetary experiments underway in Japan and America succeed, then the world will change. Aggressive fiscal and monetary stimulus will become routine, even normal. For better or worse. Already the normalization process has begun by people unaware that in this new century the easy path to inflation has been closed, with as … Continue reading The Economist recommends taking the easy path to inflation. But what if it’s closed?
Summary: Understanding events requires not just see what's happening today and guessing about the future, but also grading past expectations vs the actuals. Otherwise we live in the now, like cats, with little ability to shape our world. This is one way, perhaps the best way, to evaluate experts in fields other than our own. … Continue reading Are we following Japan into an era of slow growth, even stagnation?
Summary: What makes an experiment is uncertainty about the outcome, no matter how great people's confidence. That applies to the great monetary experiments now in progress by China, Europe, America, and Japan. Europe since 2008, the USA since 1998, and Japan since 1988 all have common histories: confident leadership, unexpected crises, and repeatedly wrong forecasts. After all that … Continue reading Let’s learn about hyperinflation. Who knows what the future holds for us?
Summary: How we handle our fears shows much about ourselves, our ability to see and think. Such as fear of inflation, a major obsession of Right since the crash. Here we look at the warning, see what actually followed, and briefly review the basis of these fears. Contents The inflationistas' story. What inflation? Warning: velocity. … Continue reading Lessons from the failed forecasts of inflation since the crash