Summary: Understanding events requires not just see what's happening today and guessing about the future, but also grading past expectations vs the actuals. Otherwise we live in the now, like cats, with little ability to shape our world. This is one way, perhaps the best way, to evaluate experts in fields other than our own. … Continue reading Are we following Japan into an era of slow growth, even stagnation?
Summary: What makes an experiment is uncertainty about the outcome, no matter how great people's confidence. That applies to the great monetary experiments now in progress by China, Europe, America, and Japan. Europe since 2008, the USA since 1998, and Japan since 1988 all have common histories: confident leadership, unexpected crises, and repeatedly wrong forecasts. After all that … Continue reading Let’s learn about hyperinflation. Who knows what the future holds for us?
Summary: How we handle our fears shows much about ourselves, our ability to see and think. Such as fear of inflation, a major obsession of Right since the crash. Here we look at the warning, see what actually followed, and briefly review the basis of these fears. Contents The inflationistas' story. What inflation? Warning: velocity. … Continue reading Lessons from the failed forecasts of inflation since the crash
Summary: Today we look at inflation, past and present. It tells much about who to trust for economic analysis, the current state of the US economy, and what we can expect in the future. . Contents Introduction The inflation picture Implications Why has inflation fallen since 2011? Others see the rise in real rates For … Continue reading Conservatives were correct: we have record-breaking inflation! What’s next?