Summary: How to deal with risks dominates our headlines, usually driven by single-interest groups that see only their favorite threat. Statistician Nassim Nicholas Taleb's latest work offers a way to identify the most serious threats facing us, and determine how much we should spend to fight each of them. It has received much attention. Is … Continue reading Nassim Nicholas Taleb looks at the risks threatening humanity
Summary: The daily news bombards us with stories about severe risks to us and the world. Countless well-meaning special interest groups publish incendiary stories, which journalists uncritically repeat. We can't afford to prevent or mitigate them all, so we do little or nothing. Here's a first step to rational action: list and describe each to … Continue reading A first step to protecting the world from its many dangers
Summary: We face so many shockwaves -- potentially high-impact events, usually estimated at low probability over years or decades (global warming being the exception). How do we assess the danger and decide how much of our scarce resources to allocate for prevention and mitigation of each? Today we look at two ways to assess these … Continue reading Preparing for the future: should we be precautionary or proactionary?
Summary: A reader's comment about Breaking news: a new analysis blows more holes in the “hockey stick” temperature reconstruction. Excerpt from a reader's comment: OK, so the data is not as clear as the hockey stick graph shows. The authors still conclude: "Our model provides a similar reconstruction but has much wider standard errors, reflecting the weak … Continue reading Damn the research! We need to act now to stop global warming.
The hacked emails and papers from the UK's Climate Research Unit reveal the underside of climate science (as the many bizarre conclusions do the same for the anti-AGW mob). Spinning data to conceal contrary evidence, avoiding freedom of information requests, purging the profession of skeptical voices. All familiar things to anyone familiar with the history … Continue reading A look at climate science written in a cooler and more skeptical day