Summary: Understanding events requires not just see what’s happening today and guessing about the future, but also grading past expectations vs the actuals. Otherwise we live in the now, like cats, with little ability to shape our world. This is one way, perhaps the best way, to evaluate experts in fields other than our own. …
Are we following Japan into an era of slow growth, even stagnation? Read More »
Summary: Today we discuss the nature of the great monetary experiment now under weigh, with five years of zero interest rates and repeated doses of quantitative easing. What does it mean to say this is an “experiment”? If we cannot reliably predict the outcome, at least let’s understand how we got into this predicament. . …
Summary: It is all about models. That’s true about all sciences, from physics to climate to economics. If you don’t believe in models, you don’t know what model you use. Today we will discuss two models that describe quantitative easing. The correct model describes the likely outcome from ending QE3, and whether it will be …
The key to understanding the future of QE3, and the future of our economy Read More »
Summary:Â We have begun a critical phase in the great monetary experiment. We know that we should stop, but our leaders fear the resulting economic shock. They fear to stop, fear to continue. There is a clear model describing this process, but one too disturbing for most people to accept: addiction. The decisions made during …
The great monetary experiment enters a new phase, with America as the stakes Read More »
Summary: On the FM website we have followed the evolution of the great monetary experiment. After four years we have mostly questions. What have been the beneficial effects, and how large? What have been the ill effects today and in the future? Does quantitative easing act like an addictive drug? Today’s post by Lacy Hunt …
