This month's sharp drop in stock prices has raised fears about the US economy. Are they warranted? Is the expansion "old"? Can we predict the next recession? See the answers you won't find in the news.
Summary: Confidence rules America, with US markets at or near record high valuations and Team Trump expanding our wars. Time for a reminder that our ability to predict events is small, which means these moments of great confidence are periods of high risk. This is a revised post from 2014. “We seem to be living … Continue reading WWI warns us about markets’ ability to see the future
Summary: Another jobs report, more clickbait headlines about the monthly noise. Here's a look beneath the glitz to the important news. The US economy continues slow steady growth, with continued signs of slowing. Also, 47% of new jobs went to foreign-born workers during the past year. Important matters. Too bad neither the candidates, journalists, or … Continue reading What you haven’t been told about the July jobs report
Summary: The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), who correctly predicted the slow recovery, looks at the multi-year slowing in the economies of the developed nations -- its causes (the world is becoming Japan) and likely consequences. ECRI’s Simple Math Goes Global ECRI, 20 June 2016. Reposted with their generous permission. The risk of a global … Continue reading ECRI explains the global slowdown, and what lies ahead
Summary: Since 2012 the idea of a "stall speed" to the economy played a prominent role the almost incessant predictions of an imminent recession. Since then the US has cruised at or below stall speed without a downturn. This is rich with lessons for us -- about the danger of believing untested theories, about overconfident … Continue reading The mystery of the US economy at stall speed