WWI warns us about markets’ ability to see the future

Forecasting with models

Summary: Confidence rules America, with US markets at or near record high valuations and Team Trump expanding our wars. Time for a reminder that our ability to predict events is small, which means these moments of great confidence are periods of high risk. This is a revised post from 2014. “We seem to be living … Continue reading WWI warns us about markets’ ability to see the future

What you haven’t been told about the July jobs report

Summary:  Another jobs report, more clickbait headlines about the monthly noise. Here's a look beneath the glitz to the important news. The US economy continues slow steady growth, with continued signs of slowing. Also, 47% of new jobs went to foreign-born workers during the past year. Important matters. Too bad neither the candidates, journalists, or … Continue reading What you haven’t been told about the July jobs report

ECRI explains the global slowdown, and what lies ahead

Summary: The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), who correctly predicted the slow recovery, looks at the multi-year slowing in the economies of the developed nations -- its causes (the world is becoming Japan) and likely consequences. ECRI’s Simple Math Goes Global ECRI, 20 June 2016. Reposted with their generous permission. The risk of a global … Continue reading ECRI explains the global slowdown, and what lies ahead

The mystery of the US economy at stall speed

Summary: Since 2012 the idea of a "stall speed" to the economy played a prominent role the almost incessant predictions of an imminent recession. Since then the US has cruised at or below stall speed without a downturn. This is rich with lessons for us -- about the danger of believing untested theories, about overconfident … Continue reading The mystery of the US economy at stall speed

May’s job report shows the beginning of the end for the recovery

Summary: First, the good news: the May number was awful but probably noise. Then the bad news: job growth is slowing fast. It's the among last economic metrics to roll over, suggesting that we're sliding to a recession somewhere ahead of us. But the US is not a "Starbucks Economy"; real wage growth is normal. … Continue reading May’s job report shows the beginning of the end for the recovery