A recession is certain. Unless the epidemic breaks soon, a depression seems likely. Lessons from history tell us how to fight it. But much of our experience is inappropriate and we will have to improvise. Here is the brief.
Now that the COVID-19 epidemic is spreading beyond China, let’s look at its likely effects on the world economy. We can manage them, but they won’t be pretty.
Trump’s mad efforts to start trade wars puts the US economy in danger. Much depends on the condition of the US economy.
This month’s sharp drop in stock prices has raised fears about the US economy. Are they warranted? Is the expansion “old”? Can we predict the next recession? See the answers you won’t find in the news.
Summary: Confidence rules America, with US markets at or near record high valuations and Team Trump expanding our wars. Time for a reminder that our ability to predict events is small, which means these moments of great confidence are periods of high risk. This is a revised post from 2014. “We seem to be living …
WWI warns us about markets’ ability to see the future Read More »
