recession

Two people before a graph warning of a recession.

A look at the US economy, and the next recession

Trump’s mad efforts to start trade wars puts the US economy in danger. Much depends on the condition of the US economy.

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The Economy - dreamstime_6619509

About the coming recession

This month’s sharp drop in stock prices has raised fears about the US economy. Are they warranted? Is the expansion “old”? Can we predict the next recession? See the answers you won’t find in the news.

Forecasting with models

WWI warns us about markets’ ability to see the future

Summary: Confidence rules America, with US markets at or near record high valuations and Team Trump expanding our wars. Time for a reminder that our ability to predict events is small, which means these moments of great confidence are periods of high risk. This is a revised post from 2014. “We seem to be living …

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What you haven’t been told about the July jobs report

Summary:  Another jobs report, more clickbait headlines about the monthly noise. Here’s a look beneath the glitz to the important news. The US economy continues slow steady growth, with continued signs of slowing. Also, 47% of new jobs went to foreign-born workers during the past year. Important matters. Too bad neither the candidates, journalists, or …

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ECRI explains the global slowdown, and what lies ahead

Summary: The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), who correctly predicted the slow recovery, looks at the multi-year slowing in the economies of the developed nations — its causes (the world is becoming Japan) and likely consequences. ECRI’s Simple Math Goes Global ECRI, 20 June 2016. Reposted with their generous permission. The risk of a global …

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