Surprises in the January jobs report

Summary: The monthly job numbers tell us much, but the headline number about which the press obsesses tells us almost nothing. This post looks at the trends that shape America as shown in this report, and especially the surprises.   Journalists and economists ask if we are in a recession. The tabloid investment media screams … Continue reading Surprises in the January jobs report

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Hold the hysteria. The US economy is OK, so far.

Summary: The economy is slowing. We are probably not in a recession, let alone beginning the end times depression doomsters have so often predicted. On the other hand, continued slowing seems likely, and a little more and we will have a recession. Let's look at some key indicators.  {First of two posts today.} Contents Manufacturing; … Continue reading Hold the hysteria. The US economy is OK, so far.

Effects Of The Coming Market Crash On The Economy – And Perhaps On You

Summary: For the past year I've warned that the economy is slowing. For the past three months I've warned that a recession is coming. Now let's consider the likely effects, and how you can prepare. The odds of a stock market crash are high. Are you at or near ground zero, to be hurt by … Continue reading Effects Of The Coming Market Crash On The Economy – And Perhaps On You

The Government Has A Clip Full Of Ammo To Fight The Next Recession

Summary: It's time to prepare for a possible recession in 2016. The manufacturing slump continues to deepen. A toxic combo: high inventories in November and weak retail sales in December. In February this expansion will tie for the 3rd longest expansion. {2nd of 2 posts today.} The Atlanta Fed's GDPnow model just lowered its est … Continue reading The Government Has A Clip Full Of Ammo To Fight The Next Recession

How To Spot A 2016 Recession On The Horizon, And Prepare For It

Summary:  The recent decline in US stock prices reflects rising worries about a recession this year. Should you worry? What do economists expect? What indicators should you watch in the river of data flowing by every day? How can you prepare for a possible recession? For answers to these questions see my first article at … Continue reading How To Spot A 2016 Recession On The Horizon, And Prepare For It

Trump’s hope: a recession might put him in the White House

Summary: The great and wise believed that Trump was a sideshow fool. Now that he decisively leads in the Republican race, they believe he might get the GOP nomination, but has no chance against Clinton. A simple example shows why that is not correct. If the polls are even roughly accurate, an easily imaginable event … Continue reading Trump’s hope: a recession might put him in the White House

Recession Watch: the economic indicators that show what’s coming

Summary: As the expansion ages and growth slows, we should begin to watch for signs that the next recession approaches. Here are some tips for doing so without spending much time at it -- avoiding the complacency of Wall Street's economists and the exaggerated darkness of the popular permabears (such as Zero Hedge). {2nd of … Continue reading Recession Watch: the economic indicators that show what’s coming