The Fed Will Not Raise Rates In The Foreseeable Future

Summary: Since 2010 I have said that the economy is locked in slow-mo and the Fed will not start a new rate cycle. It's even more true today than in 2010. Many investors and economists are convinced that the Fed will soon end its near-zero interest rate policy and begin raising rates - "normalizing them". … Continue reading The Fed Will Not Raise Rates In The Foreseeable Future

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The secret but vital to know number in today’s economic news

Summary: Economists get excited about aggregate GDP (today's hot economic news dot). People -- you, me, our neighbors -- care about per capita GDP. GDP that grows along with the population does nothing for our standard of living, (and less than nothing if the 1% cream off most of it). It is important to us, … Continue reading The secret but vital to know number in today’s economic news

Trump & Clinton ignore America’s too-slow economic growth. We can change that!

Summary: Slow economic growth is among the most serious problems afflicting America. It's incontrovertible, expected to continue -- with broad and ill effects. Too bad neither of our major candidates are interested in talking seriously about it. We can change that, if we make the effort. An exaggeration, but it's a serious problem From the … Continue reading Trump & Clinton ignore America’s too-slow economic growth. We can change that!

Fewer new superstar firms: another step towards secular stagnation for America

Summary: Economists are studying the mysterious multi-decade slowing of the US economy. One bright spot was rapid job growth in a few rapidly-growing young firms. A new study shows that since 2000 both the number of start-up firms and the number of those with very rapid growth has been declining. It's another step on the … Continue reading Fewer new superstar firms: another step towards secular stagnation for America

The Fed sees years of slowing growth. Prepare for years of political turmoil.

Summary: Slowing economic growth and rising inequality are the unmentioned elephants in Campaign 2016. While inequality gets the headlines, slowing growth is more important. The Fed forecasts show that they see it. Do we? Are we preparing for the resulting political or social turmoil, or trying to restart the engines of growth? Time is not … Continue reading The Fed sees years of slowing growth. Prepare for years of political turmoil.

Put the latest stats in larger context to understand the economy

Summary: Amidst the bursts of enthusiasm about the economy by bulls (boom!) and bears (recession!), the reality continues to be slow growth, and slowly falling forecasts for the future. Only slowly do people come to realize that, as so many sell hope and despair to their audience. This post looks at our economy from the … Continue reading Put the latest stats in larger context to understand the economy

Do we face secular stagnation or a new industrial revolution?

Summary:  US growth is slowing when it should be accelerating as we shake off the effects of the crash. The possibility of a fifth year of slow growth strengthens fears of stagnation like that afflicting Japan since 1990. Yet there's good reason to suspect that a new industrial revolution has begun, potentially generating incredible new … Continue reading Do we face secular stagnation or a new industrial revolution?