secular stagnation

Larry Summers gives us the bad news. Worse, the only solution is more of the same.

By / 31 Comments / 9 May 2016

Summary: Larry Summers speech last week was, IMO, a pivotal moment. It forced economists to look at the US from a new perspective, considering things that had been heretical. The previous post, Are we following Japan into an era of slow growth, even stagnation? sketched out his bold speech. Today we look at the text, with …

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American Exceptionalism gives us a faith-based public policy. Our confidence might be our weakness.

By / 33 Comments / 26 May 2015

Summary: We have come to believe we are exceptional, not just morally, but also operationally. We act as if we are beyond the need to plan and prepare for possible problems. It is faith-based public policy. Here we review how we came by this delusional belief, and examine how it plays out on a potentially …

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Ben Bernanke sees the great slowdown in technological progress

By / 35 Comments / 7 October 2017

Summary: The FM website has a great record of providing unpopular but accurate forecasts to its readers, but a poor record of updating them. Once they become consensus insights we drop them.  Another in a series about the next industrial revolution now starting; see the links at the end to other posts. Today let’s revisit …

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Why America’s growth is slowing, and a solution

By / 2 Comments / 14 June 2014

Summary:  The 21st century holds many economic challenges for the world.  Rivals (eg, China). The robot revolution (job losses from the next wave of automation). And slowing technological growth, an essential driver of the US economy.  This is a follow-up to Has America grown old, and can no longer grow? Or are wonders like the …

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Has America grown old, and can no longer grow? Or are wonders like the singularity in our future?

By / 24 Comments / 30 May 2015

Summary:  The future of economic growth has become a hot topic. Here’s a brief look at two of the contrasting visions for our future. Read about both visions and decide for yourself! Contents Introduction Slow growth ahead — or even no growth Accelerating growth leading to the singularity For more information: the two theories about …

Has America grown old, and can no longer grow? Or are wonders like the singularity in our future? Read More »

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