The monthly jobs report creates a flood of exciting news stories. Most of these discuss small fluctuations in its many numbers, most of which are just statistical noise. Here are three things you need to know about job and wage growth. They are the key trends seldom mentioned in the news. See my full report … Continue reading Three important things to see in today’s jobs report
Summary Jobs continued their trend: a long period of slow growth, second weakest since 1961 (2001-07 was worse). Worker's wages continued their slow growth, weekly wages up 2.1% YoY for private sector hourly workers. Slow growth doesn't create the imbalances & inflation that cause recession. This could run for another year, and perhaps longer. Such … Continue reading The Important But Hidden News In The Jobs Report
Summary: On Thursday I posted "Ignore The Bond Bears, The Fed Will Not Raise Rates". Many on Wall Street disagree -- most of whom since 2012 have expected a cycle of rising rates to begin really soon. Such as J. P. Morgan's prediction of a rate increase in December. Friday's data confirms my forecast in … Continue reading Move evidence the Fed will not raise rates on our slow-mo economy
Summary: Since 2010 I have said that the economy is locked in slow-mo and the Fed will not start a new rate cycle. It's even more true today than in 2010. Many investors and economists are convinced that the Fed will soon end its near-zero interest rate policy and begin raising rates - "normalizing them". … Continue reading The Fed Will Not Raise Rates In The Foreseeable Future
Summary: Ignore the Bulls & Bears. Their need for clickbait stories turns noise into news. See the key trends in the jobs numbers, revealing the forces shaping the US economy. The jobs report confirms that the US economy grows slowly, and is slowing. It gives no evidence that the US is accelerating, or that the … Continue reading Ignore The Bulls And Bears. See The Key Trend In The Jobs Numbers.