Summary: A new industrial revolution has begun. Here are two small examples to illustrate what it will be like. Extrapolate these a thousand fold. Then do so again. That's what will happen in the next 70 years. Let's start to prepare now. "One conversation centered on the ever accelerating progress of technology and changes in … Continue reading The fast rise and fall of two industries show the coming singularity. Let’s prepare now.
Support: Amidst the gloom that envelopes both Left and Right, evidence grows that another discontinuity in history approaches -- a singularity. If so, it will evaporate many of today's problems and create new ones. Only aware eyes and open minds can prepare for what is coming. This is another in this week's posts about good … Continue reading Good news: the singularity approaches!
Summary: It becomes increasingly clear that the rate of technological progress might accelerate in the coming years, taking us to an unknown world. Here we look at singularities past and future to help chart a course ahead, avoiding the dangers and seizing the benefits. This is a revised version of a post from 2007, one … Continue reading Looking at technological singularities in our past & future
Summary: US growth is slowing when it should be accelerating as we shake off the effects of the crash. The possibility of a fifth year of slow growth strengthens fears of stagnation like that afflicting Japan since 1990. Yet there's good reason to suspect that a new industrial revolution has begun, potentially generating incredible new … Continue reading Do we face secular stagnation or a new industrial revolution?
Summary: We cannot reliably see the future. Every decade begins with confident forecasts, usually proven wrong. Too many variables, too many complex dynamics interacting. But we can examine individual trends, the usual work of the FM website. Here we pull together the threads, a mixture of challenges and opportunities that loom over the next ten … Continue reading See the trends shaping our future. Be forewarned, so you can prepare.