Summary: The mining and manufacturing sectors of the US economy have rolled over. Perma-bear websites publish lurid descriptions of the horrific effect this will have on the US economy. What’s the truth? {2nd of 2 posts today.} (1) The manufacturing collapse Perma-bears often describe the manufacturing sector as in a downturn, sometimes as in a …
Mining and manufacturing are in recession. Will America follow? Read More »
Summary: The monthly job numbers tell us much, but the headline number about which the press obsesses tells us almost nothing. This post looks at the trends that shape America as shown in this report, and especially the surprises. Journalists and economists ask if we are in a recession. The tabloid investment media screams …
Today the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the December jobs report, among the most important of the economic numbers. It is timely and describes one of the core engines of US growth. It tells us much about the US economy’s strength (growing or fading) and about wages — affecting inflation and interest rates, corporate profits …
A new era has begun for the US and global economy, trashing the simple rules of the post-WWII era. Instead of the business cycle (the “clock” analogy found in textbooks), we have secular stagnation interrupted by frequent bubbles alternating with bouts of debt deflation that are fought by massive government stimulus programs. Since we have …
Recession Watch: a turning Point in Unemployment Claims? Read More »
I will perform an unusual magic trick for you using the employment report. Rather than transforming something mundane (a bird, a hat, cards) into something spectacular, I will transform the spectacular October employment numbers (now sparking a thousand excited articles) into something mundane. The lessons learned from this will save you time in the future. …
We’re sending more kids to college, but does the economy create good jobs for them? Read More »
