The Fed watches the jobs report. So should we.

Today the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the December jobs report, among the most important of the economic numbers. It is timely and describes one of the core engines of US growth. It tells us much about the US economy's strength (growing or fading) and about wages -- affecting inflation and interest rates, corporate profits … Continue reading The Fed watches the jobs report. So should we.

Recession Watch: a turning Point in Unemployment Claims?

A new era has begun for the US and global economy, trashing the simple rules of the post-WWII era. Instead of the business cycle (the “clock” analogy found in textbooks), we have secular stagnation interrupted by frequent bubbles alternating with bouts of debt deflation that are fought by massive government stimulus programs. Since we have … Continue reading Recession Watch: a turning Point in Unemployment Claims?

We’re sending more kids to college, but does the economy create good jobs for them?

I will perform an unusual magic trick for you using the employment report. Rather than transforming something mundane (a bird, a hat, cards) into something spectacular, I will transform the spectacular October employment numbers (now sparking a thousand excited articles) into something mundane. The lessons learned from this will save you time in the future. … Continue reading We’re sending more kids to college, but does the economy create good jobs for them?

Three visions of our future after the robot revolution

Summary: During the past 2 years the robot revolution has come into view, and all but Right-wingers living in fantasy-land have begun to realize it might (like the previous ones) produce large-scale social disruption and suffering. But to prepare for these changes we must first image what kind of world they'll create. Here we look … Continue reading Three visions of our future after the robot revolution

The bottom line of the May employment numbers

Summary: The strong May employment number confirms what I've said in previous reports about the economy, casting doubt on the bears' confident forecasts of an imminent recession. The economy was slow in Q1, but the data so far for Q2 paints a stronger if still mixed picture. {1st of 2 posts today.} #BLS Keep in … Continue reading The bottom line of the May employment numbers