Why did the Fed raise rates? For the opposite of the reason they gave…

Summary: The Fed Governors told us they planned to raise rates, and months ago told us when they would do so. But their explanation of why they raised rates makes little sense. We can see their thinking by looking at the economic projections released at the Open Market Committee meetings. They raised rates not because … Continue reading Why did the Fed raise rates? For the opposite of the reason they gave…

Why is the Fed Talking up the Economy? The Answer Reveals Much.

Summary: What will the Fed do during the next few months? They try to clearly communicate their plans, so we need only listen. Unfortunately we have to read between the lines to see their thinking. Such as we see with this speech by Dennis Lockhart (President of the Atlanta Fed): “Assessing Economic Conditions for Liftoff“, … Continue reading Why is the Fed Talking up the Economy? The Answer Reveals Much.

The first financial world war has begun, over oil. Bet on the Saudi Princes to win.

Summary: We have not begun a new era of low oil prices, fruits of new tech and a beneficent Fate. Low oil prices are the wreckage of an ongoing war -- a financial war waged by the Saudi Princes for control of the world oil markets. We can predict who will win but only guess … Continue reading The first financial world war has begun, over oil. Bet on the Saudi Princes to win.

What Happens When the Auto-Loan Boom Blows Up?

Summary: One theory of the bulls is that the slow recovery since 2008 means that there are few imbalances in the US economy, the strong sectors whose busts cause recessions. That is not correct. Here we look at one strong sector: automobile sales. As usual in America, we start by looking at the lending that … Continue reading What Happens When the Auto-Loan Boom Blows Up?

Recession Watch: Hidden Insights in the Jobs Report

Summary: The headline number of November's job report tells us something important. Digging into the numbers shows that this recovery is nearing its end. This recovery has been slow and steady. It has frustrated the bulls who in 2009 predicted a "V" recovery -- and since incessantly predicted a "take-off" soon (corporate profits, CEOs' income, … Continue reading Recession Watch: Hidden Insights in the Jobs Report