The Important But Hidden News In The Jobs Report

Summary Jobs continued their trend: a long period of slow growth, second weakest since 1961 (2001-07 was worse). Worker's wages continued their slow growth, weekly wages up 2.1% YoY for private sector hourly workers. Slow growth doesn't create the imbalances & inflation that cause recession. This could run for another year, and perhaps longer. Such … Continue reading The Important But Hidden News In The Jobs Report

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Ignore The Bulls And Bears. See The Key Trend In The Jobs Numbers.

Summary: Ignore the Bulls & Bears. Their need for clickbait stories turns noise into news. See the key trends in the jobs numbers, revealing the forces shaping the US economy. The jobs report confirms that the US economy grows slowly, and is slowing. It gives no evidence that the US is accelerating, or that the … Continue reading Ignore The Bulls And Bears. See The Key Trend In The Jobs Numbers.

The jobs report shows why so many don’t understand the US economy

Summary: Today's job report show one reason we see our world so poorly -- we read the news. Journalists and the experts who make headlines give us exciting stories of constant change. But the world usually changes slowly. Sometimes, as in this economic cycle, slow stable boring growth is the story. That generates no clickbait, … Continue reading The jobs report shows why so many don’t understand the US economy

ECRI explains the global slowdown, and what lies ahead

Summary: The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), who correctly predicted the slow recovery, looks at the multi-year slowing in the economies of the developed nations -- its causes (the world is becoming Japan) and likely consequences. ECRI’s Simple Math Goes Global ECRI, 20 June 2016. Reposted with their generous permission. The risk of a global … Continue reading ECRI explains the global slowdown, and what lies ahead

ECRI looks at our Great Monetary Experiment: It’s Too Big to Fail

Summary: The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), who correctly predicted the slow recovery, explains the slow growth in which the US and Japanese economies are mired, and the fantastic monetary experiment waged by central banks to prevent them slumping into recessions. Appreciate the wonders of our time. The recovery since 2008 has been difficult for … Continue reading ECRI looks at our Great Monetary Experiment: It’s Too Big to Fail

The oil bust will deepen before prices skyrocket. Even wilder swings lie ahead.

Summary: The great struggle to manage or even control oil prices again dominates the world economy and the news headlines. Yet even the basics are poorly understood, cloaked in myths and misunderstandings. Here is a quick sketch of how the oil boom brought us here, how the bust will end, who will win, and what … Continue reading The oil bust will deepen before prices skyrocket. Even wilder swings lie ahead.

How close are we to the next recession?

Summary: How close is the US economy to a recession? Here we review the evidence and draw a firm conclusion. {1st of 2 posts today.} The financial press overflows with confident forecasts about everything from individual stock prices to the fate of the overall economy. It's usually difficult to reliably predict such things with useful … Continue reading How close are we to the next recession?