This month's sharp drop in stock prices has raised fears about the US economy. Are they warranted? Is the expansion "old"? Can we predict the next recession? See the answers you won't find in the news.
Summary Jobs continued their trend: a long period of slow growth, second weakest since 1961 (2001-07 was worse). Worker's wages continued their slow growth, weekly wages up 2.1% YoY for private sector hourly workers. Slow growth doesn't create the imbalances & inflation that cause recession. This could run for another year, and perhaps longer. Such … Continue reading The Important But Hidden News In The Jobs Report
Summary: Ignore the Bulls & Bears. Their need for clickbait stories turns noise into news. See the key trends in the jobs numbers, revealing the forces shaping the US economy. The jobs report confirms that the US economy grows slowly, and is slowing. It gives no evidence that the US is accelerating, or that the … Continue reading Ignore The Bulls And Bears. See The Key Trend In The Jobs Numbers.
Summary: Today's job report show one reason we see our world so poorly -- we read the news. Journalists and the experts who make headlines give us exciting stories of constant change. But the world usually changes slowly. Sometimes, as in this economic cycle, slow stable boring growth is the story. That generates no clickbait, … Continue reading The jobs report shows why so many don’t understand the US economy
Summary: The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), who correctly predicted the slow recovery, looks at the multi-year slowing in the economies of the developed nations -- its causes (the world is becoming Japan) and likely consequences. ECRI’s Simple Math Goes Global ECRI, 20 June 2016. Reposted with their generous permission. The risk of a global … Continue reading ECRI explains the global slowdown, and what lies ahead