forecasts

The track record of predictions made on the FM website

Summary:  Here’s a snapshot of the FM reference page showing some of the accurate predictions made on the FM website (wrong ones appear on the Smackdowns page).  As you can see in the comments, most were controversal when made.  Per the FM style sheet, they’re mildly expressed even when apocalyptic in nature. The good ones The articles …

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Exaggerations and false predictions are good; truth is bad – about peak oil research

Summary:  One reason Americans observation-orientation-decision-action loop is broken:  we love people to give us bad information.  Even outright lies are acceptable, if interesting or flattery.  As in the media trope “he was wrong, but made us think.”  Today’s example is the late Matthew Simmons. Christopher Helman, a Bureau Chief for Forbes explains in “Matt Simmons, …

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If humanity is unprepared for Peak Oil, here are some of the guilty people

One reason the arrival of peak oil might catch the world by surprise is the repeated false predictions by peak oil experts.  Confident predictions, often contemptuous of mainstream experts.  The quality of their work is often shoddy, their admissions of error are rare.  Repeatedly crying wolf is the opposite of alerting people to a danger. …

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The CIA’s forecast about the Iranian Revolution – and the revolution prediction tool

This is valuable material not just for students of history, but for those seeking useful tools to understand today’s rapidly changing world. (a)  “The Dionysian Rites of Henry Kissinger’s CIA and the Iranian Revolution of 2010“, Marla Singer and Geoffrey Batt, The Journal of Irreverent Attacks on Conventional Wisdom, Entrenched Dogma and Sacred Cows, January …

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